Covid-19 - Lock Day 1

Covid-19 - Lock Day 1

It  was on 24th March .. 8.00 PM the nation had a high heart beat as the Prime Minister of India was planning to  address the nation. I had an expectation that the Lock down on the Covid-19 will be continued for a week, but it was a bold decision to move the curfew to 21 days. sss




             Even though there are so much uncertainties that is to be addressed i trust the govt mechanism has the highest priority to control the  mass spread and reduce the mortality.
This 21 day curfew in India and also in many parts of the world will make all the lawmakers, public to be more responsible and corrections will happen in many areas like health care policies, Emergency response,Economy etc.

As i am tracking the day wise impact of corona for India here are my observation.

 

                                    You can see here the way in which it was spreading, till mid of March impacted people totally in India was 141, this is not the correct picture as there were many people with travel history but ignoring all the precaution that were given by government on self quarantine, hiding travel history etc. 
                                   Government also failed to seal them for self quarantine as it is doing  now. As on 25th march  there have been15,24,266 Passengers screened at airport ( Source https://www.mohfw.gov.in/index.html). And during the same period the awareness with the public was very less and many were making fun on the Virus, Floating jokes, memes, passing racist comments etc.  And the state governments excluding Tamilnadu,Keralal,Karanataka others were not serious. That was the reason the rate of spread in these states is under control but other is not.

Example:
Kerala exposed its first case on end January and till date it has 100 cases.
Tamilnadu immediately reacted and till date it has 16 ( as borders were closed early)
Karnataka is now with 41 cases with amount of inflow on foreigners this is very much in control

But other states which took it lighter is now moving to Firefighting mode.
                                             

                                  As i read the pattern if we continue to have 2 digit report every day i trust we are in control, if we move to 3 digits on daily reported cases then we are in heavy danger mode. 

                                And surely this lock down will control the spread not to nil but surely will avoid mass scale transmission. As we know all metros, Buses, Trains , Public transports which are primary mode of transport is now stopped and also the public gathering.

Source: https://www.mohfw.gov.in/index.html (Only source i rely)
Observations: It is my personal observation 

Do leave your comments and what you foresee for next 21 days.

Covid19 - Where we are ?

                  I trust that this will be the first impact that alteast 2-3 generations would have seen for the First time. Todays Speech of the  PrimeMinister resonates the need of the Hour. 

             Today is March 19 and India is fighting to contain the Covid 19 to stay on Stage 2 and not move to Next Stage. As a country with 130 crores of population it is important to contain this in Stage 2 only. If it moves to Stage III then it will become endless for us.

             The awareness levels is improving at urban / metro as there is more Import cases. But still the rural india is on its own pace with many opinion on the virus, treatment etc. Hope the Upcoming days will level this gap.

Stages of Pandemic:

How Fast it Spreads?

                                    



                       Kindly see the graph on the left side, you can see the spike is very steep. The rate on which it is moving is very high. I still remember there was many fun on the name of this virus against the famous Beer Corona. Those were days when people were not aware of the impact and were considering it to be a problem for china alone, but as the days moved across the scenarios changed.
    
                      I see there is complete Global Lock down , many airports are shut, restrictions to fly, Mass gatherings are stopped and all this is to ensure that that Spike comes down and diminshes quickly
 
 

Global Situation:

Observation - 
Europe is More affected and there is complete Lock out 

India Situation:

 I consider people are not yet prepared for the complete Lock out and not fully serious and sensational about this Issue. When many people are reacting there are still incidents that are happening on the mass gathering by Political Parties,Functions, Agitation etc. It is now very important to maintain the social distancing(New term).

Vacciane:  
Still clinical trails are in progress and no official news in the WHO / Govt of India.

 News Sources:

1. https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
2. https://covidout.in/
3. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
4. https://www.who.int/